← All Field Notes
Strategy
Why PVC Numbers Don't Tell the Full Story
A high collection rate is not the same as a high turnout. Here's what actually predicts it.
1 August 2026PVC collection rates are one of the most widely cited metrics in Nigerian electoral analysis. A high collection rate in a local government area is often treated as a signal of likely turnout — but this assumption deserves scrutiny.
Collection and turnout are related, but they are not the same thing. What actually predicts whether collected PVCs translate into votes on election day involves a more layered set of factors: ground mobilisation, last-mile logistics, security conditions, and the intensity of competition in a given area.
This note examines the gap between collection and turnout, and outlines what practitioners should actually be tracking.